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China is one of the most biodiverse countries in the world, but rapid economic growth and unsustainable consumption means that its nature is under threat. Nearly half of all wild animal populations in the country are declining and 11 per cent of its plants are threatened. In recognition of this, policy makers, scientists and implementers in China have set ambitious conservation goals, including protecting 60 per cent of wetlands and reaching 26 per cent forest cover by 2035.

Welcomed by the Chinese government, we presented the China Biodiversity Outlook at the China Pavilion during the UN Biodiversity Conference in Montreal, Canada.

Using land-use and biodiversity modelling, the Outlook presents four possible futures for China’s biodiversity with the aim of analyzing the consequences of different levels of national environmental protection and restoration action. These futures range from a bleak one with extensive nature loss as a result of business-as-usual patterns of consumption, population growth and limited conservation action to a promising one with species and ecosystem recovery and significant benefits for people following major sustainable socio-economic shifts and policy actions.

This analysis provides a solid, scientific reference that will be used by China to speed up implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework and feed into ongoing revision of the country’s National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan.